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A Historical and Geographical Look at Federal Employment Levels
After a decline in the 1990s, the number of federal workers was relatively stable before rising in recent years. However, the levels have changed substantially in many states where they work.
Working Paper
The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective
This paper analyzes market-based probability distributions for long-run inflation expectations derived from inflation derivatives. We construct forward-looking distributions for five-year-ahead inflation to assess the likelihood that inflation will fall above, below, or near the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. By examining the mean, volatility, and skewness of these distributions, we document how expectations have evolved since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the reliability of market-based measures, we compare our results with alternative data sources. We highlight the ...
Are Continued Jobless Claims a Useful Gauge of Labor Market Conditions?
Economists have used initial claims for jobless benefits to gauge U.S. labor market conditions. Can continued claims also be used as a predictor of employment growth?
What Causes “Jumps” in Stock Prices?
An analysis examines which types of macroeconomic announcements tend to be most often associated with jumps in U.S. stock prices.
The U.S. Dollar’s Role as a Reserve Currency
One of the U.S. dollar’s influential international roles is as the dominant reserve currency, widely used in international foreign exchange reserves, which are rainy day funds for governments.
How Well Are Inflation Expectations Anchored? Two Datasets Compared
What anchors inflation expectations? An analysis breaks down how anticipated drift from the Fed’s 2% target and divergence among forecasts each contribute.
Journal Article
The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective
This article analyzes market-based probability distributions for long-run inflation expectations derived from inflation derivatives. We construct forward-looking distributions for five-year-ahead inflation to assess the likelihood that inflation will fall above, below, or near the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. By examining the mean, volatility, and skewness of these distributions, we document how expectations have evolved since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the reliability of market-based measures, we compare our results with alternative data sources. We highlight the ...
The Effects of a “Low-Fire, Low-Hire” Economy on Workers
In a 'low-fire, low-hire' economy, underemployment and longer-term unemployment have grown while wage growth has slowed.
Journal Article
Successful vs. Failed Disinflations: An Event Study
The U.S. did not experience large decreases in production or employment during the disinflation of 2022-2024. To put this unusually costless disinflation in context, this article characterizes the behavior of economic variables from more than 100 disinflation episodes in OECD countries. We decompose these episodes into those that successfully reduced inflation over several years, those in which inflation substantially rebounded, and the most recent episodes of 2022-2024. Successful episodes show several differences in comparison to failed episodes, including lower real interest rates and ...