Search Results
A Historical and Geographical Look at Federal Employment Levels
After a decline in the 1990s, the number of federal workers was relatively stable before rising in recent years. However, the levels have changed substantially in many states where they work.
Are Continued Jobless Claims a Useful Gauge of Labor Market Conditions?
Economists have used initial claims for jobless benefits to gauge U.S. labor market conditions. Can continued claims also be used as a predictor of employment growth?
How Well Are Inflation Expectations Anchored? Two Datasets Compared
What anchors inflation expectations? An analysis breaks down how anticipated drift from the Fed’s 2% target and divergence among forecasts each contribute.
What Causes “Jumps” in Stock Prices?
An analysis examines which types of macroeconomic announcements tend to be most often associated with jumps in U.S. stock prices.
Working Paper
The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective
This paper analyzes market-based probability distributions for long-run inflation expectations derived from inflation derivatives. We construct forward-looking distributions for five-year-ahead inflation to assess the likelihood that inflation will fall above, below, or near the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. By examining the mean, volatility, and skewness of these distributions, we document how expectations have evolved since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the reliability of market-based measures, we compare our results with alternative data sources. We highlight the ...
Journal Article
The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective
This article analyzes market-based probability distributions for long-run inflation expectations derived from inflation derivatives. We construct forward-looking distributions for five-year-ahead inflation to assess the likelihood that inflation will fall above, below, or near the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. By examining the mean, volatility, and skewness of these distributions, we document how expectations have evolved since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the reliability of market-based measures, we compare our results with alternative data sources. We highlight the ...