Discussion Paper
A Better Way of Understanding the US Consumer: Decomposing Retail Sales by Household Income
Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem; Feler, Leo; Chylak, Jack (2024-10-11)
Changes in retail spending reflect changes in consumer demand for goods. For the past several months, retail sales estimates published by the Census Bureau have indicated that consumer demand for retail goods remains resilient. However, published measures do not provide details on which consumers’ spending has remained resilient. Using a detailed micro dataset, we construct a measure of average retail spending for low-, middle- and high-income households.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2024-10-11

Discussion Paper
Tracking consumer sentiment versus how consumers are doing based on verified retail purchases
Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem; Feler, Leo; Mitchell, Samantha; Chylak, Jack (2025-04-24)
Despite low unemployment, moderating inflation and anchored inflation expectations, and rising incomes since mid-2022, surveys at the end of 2024 continued to report that consumer sentiment remained unusually low, below levels at the onset of the pandemic and on par with levels during the Great Financial Crisis. Why was there this discrepancy between consumer sentiment and the real economy?
FEDS Notes , Paper 2025-04-24-2