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Journal Article
Many Americans Still Lack Retirement Savings
Morris, Paul; Chien, YiLi (2018)
This article aims to offer a glimpse into the current state of retirement readiness in the United States. We examine the participation in and usage of the two most common types of financial accounts designed exclusively for retirement savings. Overall, our analysis indicates that many households either do not utilize or underutilize the retirement savings plans available to them. We also examine how retirement savings vary with age and discuss alternative ways that nonparticipants may be preparing for retirement.
The Regional Economist , Volume 26 , Issue 1

Working Paper
What about Japan?
Lustig, Hanno; Cole, Harold L.; Chien, YiLi (2023-11-02)
As a result of the BoJ's large-scale asset purchases, the consolidated Japanese government borrows mostly at the floating rate from households and invests in longer-duration risky assets to earn an extra 3% of GDP. We quantify the impact of Japan's low-rate policies on its government and households. Because of the duration mismatch on the government balance sheet, the government's fiscal space expands when real rates decline, allowing the government to keep its promises to older Japanese households. A typical younger Japanese household does not have enough duration in its portfolio to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-028

More Households Face Food Scarcity during COVID-19
Chien, YiLi; Bennett, Julie (2020-06-18)
More U.S. households are reporting that they sometimes or often do not have enough food, according to a new Census survey.
On the Economy

Working Paper
What about Japan?
Lustig, Hanno; Cole, Harold L.; Chien, YiLi (2024-07-12)
As a result of the Bank of Japan's large-scale asset purchases, the consolidated Japanese government borrows mostly at the floating rate from households and invests in longer-duration risky assets to earn an more than 3% of GDP in expectation. We quantify the impact of Japan's low-rate policies on its government and households. Because of the duration mismatch on the government balance sheet, the government's fiscal space expands when real rates decline, allowing the government to keep its promises to older Japanese households. A typical younger Japanese household does not have enough ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-028

Working Paper
The risk premium and long-run global imbalances
Chien, YiLi; Naknoi, Kanda (2012)
Our paper investigates whether the valuation effect caused by a large risk premium and a low risk-free rate can help to explain the enormous US current account and trade deficit observed in the past decade. To answer this question, we set up an endowment growth model in which investors are endowed with heterogeneous trading technologies. In our model, the average US investors load up more aggregate risk by investing in a risky asset abroad and issuing a risk-free asset. Thanks to the large risk premium as well as the low risk-free rate, the US can sustain a long-run trade deficit even as a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2012-009

Working Paper
The Ramsey Steady-State Conundrum in Heterogeneous-Agent Economies
Wen, Yi; Chien, YiLi (2022-09-15)
In infinite horizon, heterogeneous-agent and incomplete-market models, the existence of an interior Ramsey steady state is often assumed instead of proven. This paper makes two fundamental contributions: (i) We prove that the interior Ramsey steady state assumed by Aiyagari (1995) does not exist in the standard Aiyagari model. Specifically, a steady state featuring the modified golden rule and a positive capital tax is feasible but not optimal. (ii) We design a modified, analytically tractable version of the standard Aiyagari model to unveil the necessary and/or sufficient conditions for the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-009

Journal Article
Stability and Equilibrium Selection in Learning Models: A Note of Caution
Chien, YiLi; Cho, In-Koo; Ravikumar, B. (2021-10-18)
Relative to rational expectations models, learning models provide a theory of expectation formation where agents use observed data and a learning rule. Given the possibility of multiple equilibria under rational expectations, the learning literature often uses stability as a criterion to select an equilibrium. This article uses a monetary economy to illustrate that equilibrium selection based on stability is sensitive to specifications of the learning rule. The stability criterion selects qualitatively different equilibria even when the differences in learning specifications are small.
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 4 , Pages 477-488

Working Paper
Are Government Bonds Net Wealth or a Liability? ---Optimal Debt and Taxes in an OLG Model with Uninsurable Income Risk
Wu, HsinJung; Wen, Yi; Chien, YiLi (2020-04-08)
The rapidly growing national debt in the U.S. since the 1970s has alarmed and intrigued the academic world. Consequently, the concept of dynamic (in)efficiency in an overlapping generations (OLG) world and the importance of the heterogeneous-agents and incomplete markets (HAIM) hypothesis to justify a high debt-to-GDP ratio have been extensively studied. Two important consensus emerge from this literature: (i) The optimal quantity of public debt is positive—due to insufficient private liquidity to support private saving and investment (see, e.g., Barro (1974), Woodford (1990), and Aiyagari ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-007

Journal Article
The Value of $600 Across States Hit Hardest by COVID-19
Bennett, Julie; Chien, YiLi (2020-04-28)
The CARES act provides an extra $600 per week in unemployment benefits, but the purchasing power of those dollars varies across states, raising the question of whether the equal distribution of $600 across states is an equitable distribution.
Economic Synopses , Issue 26

Working Paper
Convergence to Rational Expectations in Learning Models: A Note of Caution
Ravikumar, B.; Cho, In-Koo; Chien, YiLi (2020-08-29)
This paper illustrates a challenge in analyzing the learning algorithms resulting in second-order difference equations. We show in a simple monetary model that the learning dynamics do not converge to the rational expectations monetary steady state. We then show that to guarantee convergence, the gain parameter used in the learning rule has to be restricted based on economic fundamentals in the monetary model.
Working Papers , Paper 2020-027

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