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Journal Article
Stability and Equilibrium Selection in Learning Models: A Note of Caution
Chien, YiLi; Cho, In-Koo; Ravikumar, B. (2021-10-18)
Relative to rational expectations models, learning models provide a theory of expectation formation where agents use observed data and a learning rule. Given the possibility of multiple equilibria under rational expectations, the learning literature often uses stability as a criterion to select an equilibrium. This article uses a monetary economy to illustrate that equilibrium selection based on stability is sensitive to specifications of the learning rule. The stability criterion selects qualitatively different equilibria even when the differences in learning specifications are small.
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 4 , Pages 477-488

Journal Article
State Variation of Tax Deductions
Morris, Paul; Chien, YiLi (2017)
The impact of proposed tax code changes will vary significantly across states.
Economic Synopses , Issue 12 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
The Value of $600 Across States Hit Hardest by COVID-19
Chien, YiLi; Bennett, Julie (2020-04-28)
The CARES act provides an extra $600 per week in unemployment benefits, but the purchasing power of those dollars varies across states, raising the question of whether the equal distribution of $600 across states is an equitable distribution.
Economic Synopses , Issue 26

Journal Article
The Real Term Premium in a Stationary Economy with Segmented Asset Markets
Lee, Junsang; Chien, YiLi (2019)
This article proposes a general equilibrium model to explain the positive and sizable term premia implied by the data. The authors introduce a slow mean-reverting process of consumption growth and a segmented asset-market mechanism with heterogeneous trading technologies into an otherwise standard heterogeneous agent general equilibrium model. First, the slow mean-reverting consumption growth process implies that the expected consumption growth rate is only slightly countercyclical and the process can exhibit near-zero first-order autocorrelation, as observed in the data. This slight ...
Review , Volume 101 , Issue 2 , Pages 115-134

Journal Article
The Rising Federal Funds Rate in the Current Low Long-Term Interest Rate Environment
Morris, Paul; Chien, YiLi (2017)
The low long-term yield is likely a result of high foreign demand for Treasuries rather than a near-zero federal funds rate.
Economic Synopses , Issue 10 , Pages 1-2

What Lessons Can Be Drawn from Japan’s High Debt-to-GDP Ratio?
Chien, YiLi; Stewart, Ashley (2023-11-14)
Taking into account other public liabilities and assets can provide a clearer picture when comparing Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio with that of the U.S.
On the Economy

Japan’s Consolidated Balance Sheet and Challenges for Monetary Policy
Chien, YiLi; Stewart, Ashley (2024-10-24)
An analysis breaks down Japan’s consolidated balance sheet and considerations surrounding fiscal and monetary policies.
On the Economy

Why the Same Inflation Target May Not Fit All Countries
Chien, YiLi; Bennett, Julie (2020-08-27)
The central banks of many advanced economies have adopted an inflation target at around 2%. But should they use the same target?
On the Economy

Journal Article
Unemployment by Industry: Duration Must Be Considered, Too
Morris, Paul; Chien, YiLi (2016-01)
To better understand unemployment in key industries, not only the unemployment rate but the duration of unemployment for those in the industry should be considered. Focusing on only the former could lead to misguided efforts to help the jobless.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan

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