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Working Paper
How does future income affect current consumption?
Working Paper
On the concavity of the consumption function
Working Paper
Unemployment risk and precautionary wealth: evidence from households' balance sheets
Recent empirical work on the strength of precautionary saving has yielded widely varying conclusions. The mixed findings may reflect a number of difficulties in proxying uncertainty, executing instrumental variables estimation, and incorporating theoretical restrictions into empirical models. For each of these problems, this paper uses existing best-practice techniques and some new strategies to relate unemployment probabilities from the Current Population Survey to net worth data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. We find that increases in unemployment risk do not boost saving by ...
Working Paper
Buffer stock saving and the permanent income hypothesis
Working Paper
Saving and growth with habit formation
Working Paper
Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act
To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses of households to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis. First, during the lockdown, many types of spending are undesirable or impossible. Second, some of the jobs that disappear during the lockdown will not reappear when it is lifted. We estimate that, if the lockdown is short-lived, the combination of expanded unemployment insurance benefits and stimulus payments should be sufficient to allow a swift ...
Working Paper
How important is precautionary saving?
Working Paper
The nature and magnitude of precautionary wealth
Working Paper
Saving and growth: a reinterpretation