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Journal Article
The baby boom generation and aggregate savings
Many analysts predict a resurgence in national savings as baby boomers approach retirement. This analysis of demographic trends and survey measures of savings and income suggests that such expectations may be ill founded. Although baby boomer saving rates will likely rise over the next twenty years, aggregate saving may not increase because other, low-saving age groups will be claiming an increasing share of the population. Moreover, despite a reputation for free spending, many baby boomers have accumulated substantial savings already and may not raise their saving rates aggressively in their ...
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Multiple ratings and credit standards: differences of opinion in the credit rating industry
Rating-dependent financial regulators assume that the same letter ratings from different agencies imply the same levels of default risk. Most "third" agencies, however, assign significantly higher ratings on average than Moody's and Standard & Poor's. We show that, contrary to the claims of some rating industry professionals, sample selection bias can account for at most half of the observed average difference in ratings. We also investigate the economic rationale for using multiple rating agencies. Among the many variables considered, only size and bond-issuance history are consistently ...
Journal Article
Interest rates, household cash flow, and consumer expenditures
Journal Article
Securitization, loan sales, and the credit slowdown
Household and business lending has slowed sharply in recent years, but the anemic growth in loans booked at depository institutions, mortgage companies, and finance companies may overstate the decline in credit originated by these institutions. This article reports measures of credit growth that include "off-balance-sheet lending"loans that were originated by intermediaries but are absent from their balance sheets because of direct loan sales or the issuance of asset-backed securities. The authors also compare the relative volume of off-balance-sheet lending by types of intermediaries.
Journal Article
Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings
The authors conduct the first systematic analysis of the determinants and impact of the sovereign credit ratings assigned by the two leading U.S. agencies, Moody's Investor Services and Standard and Poor's. Of the large number of criteria used by the two agencies, six factors appear to play an important role in determining a country's credit rating: per capita income, GDP growth, inflation, external debt, level of economic development, and default history. In addition, the authors find that sovereign ratings influence market yields--particularly those on non-investment-grade ...
Journal Article
The credit rating industry
Investors and regulators have been increasing their reliance on the opinions of the credit rating agencies. This article shows that although the ratings provide accurate rank-orderings of default risk, the meaning of specific letter grades varies over time and across agencies. Noting that current regulations do not explicitly adjust for agency differences, the authors argue that a reassessment of the use of ratings and the adequacy of public oversight is overdue.
Journal Article
Perspective on the credit slowdown
Journal Article
The securities industry and the New York - New Jersey region
The author finds that the securities industry in the New York-New Jersey region, while vulnerable to stock and bond market fluctuations, is enjoying strong growth in employment and salaries. Benefits from future growth, however, will likely flow predominantly to highly skilled workers as rapid technological change continues to widen existing income differentials.
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Split ratings and the pricing of credit risk
Despite the fact that over 50 percent of all corporate bonds have different ratings from Moody's and Standard and Poor's at issuance, most bond pricing models ignore these differences of opinion. Our work compares a number of different methods of accounting for split ratings in estimating bond pricing models. We find that pricing rules that use only the Moody's or Standard and Poor's ratings produce unbiased but highly inefficient forecasts. If models rely instead on simply the higher or lower of the two ratings (but not both), greater bias is introduced with insignificant gains in ...