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Banks versus Hurricanes: A Case Study of Puerto Rico after Hurricanes Irma and Maria
Anagnostakos, Peter; Bram, Jason; Chan, Benjamin; Fischl-Lanzoni, Natalia; Latif, Hasan; Mahoney, James M.; Morgan, Donald P.; Morgan, Ladd; Suarez, Ivelisse (2023-11-01)
We study Puerto Rico’s experience after the severe hurricane season of 2017 to better understand how extreme weather disasters affect bank stability and their ability to lend. Despite the devastation wrought by two category 5 hurricanes in a single month, we find relatively modest and transitory impacts on bank performance with no evident decline in lending capacity. We discuss various mitigants that help limit bank exposure to extreme weather and whether these mitigants may be vulnerable given the potential for more severe and more impactful climate events.
Staff Reports , Paper 1078

Journal Article
Job growth in New York and New Jersey: mid-2007 review and outlook
Rosen, Rae D.; Bram, Jason; Orr, James A. (2007-08)
Employment in the New York-New Jersey region expanded by about 0.9 percent in 2006. Slightly slower job growth - on the order of 0.8 percent - was recorded in the first half of 2007 and is expected to continue throughout the year, in part reflecting moderating growth in the national economy. The employment rise in New York State was led by a strong expansion of services jobs in New York City; any sustained weakening in the city's financial sector would be unlikely to affect employment significantly until 2008.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 13 , Issue Aug

Discussion Paper
Businesses in the Tri-State Region Struggling to Weather the Coronavirus Outbreak
Abel, Jaison R.; Bram, Jason; Deitz, Richard (2020-03-30)
As a result of the coronavirus outbreak, New York State, New Jersey, and Connecticut have closed nonessential businesses and schools and asked residents to stay home in an effort to slow the spread of the virus. These actions are unprecedented, and the economic impacts are likely to be temporary but severe, and difficult to track and measure. With conditions changing so rapidly, timely data on the economic impacts of the outbreak and resultant policies on businesses and people are both scarce and important. In this post, we provide some very recent information on the economic effects of the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200330a

Discussion Paper
The Regional Economy during the Pandemic
Abel, Jaison R.; Bram, Jason; Deitz, Richard; Hastings, Jonathan (2020-12-02)
The New York-Northern New Jersey region experienced an unprecedented downturn earlier this year, one more severe than that of the nation, and the region is still struggling to make up the ground that was lost. That is the key takeaway at an economic press briefing held today by the New York Fed examining economic conditions during the pandemic in the Federal Reserve’s Second District. Despite the substantial recovery so far, business activity, consumer spending, and employment are all still well below pre-pandemic levels in much of the region, and fiscal pressures are mounting for state and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201202

Discussion Paper
April Regional Service-Sector Survey Points to A Long-Awaited Rebound
Bram, Jason; Deitz, Richard (2021-04-16)
While the manufacturing sector typically drives recessions and recoveries more than the service sector, the opposite has been true during the pandemic recession. Finally this month, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s April business surveys point to a solid increase in service sector activity as well as continued strength in manufacturing activity in the New York-Northern New Jersey region, marking the first signs of widespread growth since the pandemic began. While manufacturing activity had been increasing through much of the pandemic, service sector activity had declined for thirteen ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210416

Journal Article
Employment in the New York - New Jersey Region: 2008 review and outlook
Rosen, Rae D.; Bram, Jason; Orr, James A. (2008-09)
The 2007 slowing in job growth in the New York - New Jersey region continued through August 2008. A projected weakening in the national economy through the end of 2008 combined with the market turmoil affecting New York City's finance sector suggests that the region will post substantially smaller job gains this year than it did in 2007. Beyond 2008, continued financial stress could lead to an even sharper and more protracted contraction in the city's finance sector, potentially spreading to other sectors of the region's economy.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 14 , Issue Sep

Discussion Paper
Banks versus Hurricanes
Fischl-Lanzoni, Natalia; Morgan, Ladd; Chan, Benjamin; Bram, Jason; Suarez, Ivelisse; Anagnostakos, Peter; Mahoney, James M.; Morgan, Donald P.; Latif, Hasan (2023-11-20)
The impacts of hurricanes analyzed in the previous post in this series may be far-reaching in the Second District. In a new Staff Report, we study how banks in Puerto Rico fared after Hurricane Maria struck the island on September 17, 2017. Maria makes a worst case in some respects because the economy and banks there were vulnerable beforehand, and because Maria struck just two weeks after Hurricane Irma flooded the island. Despite the immense destruction and disruption Maria caused, we find that the island’s economy and banks recovered surprisingly quickly. We discuss the various ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231120

Journal Article
Taking the pulse of the New York City economy
Orr, James A.; Bram, Jason (2006-05)
Although New York City's payroll employment is rising briskly, it still falls short of its 2001 peak, raising concerns that the local economy is not generating enough jobs. However, a look at a broader set of economic indicators-alternative job measures, wage and salary earnings, and a composite index of economic activity-suggests that the economy is significantly healthier than the payroll count indicates. Indeed, a measure of employment among New York City residents shows a strong upward trend extending over the past thirty years. Subseries: Second District Highlights.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 12 , Issue May

Conference Paper
Neighborhood revitalization in New York City in the 1990s
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lagakos, David; Edgerton, Jesse; Bram, Jason; Orr, James A.; Gelb, Yigel; McConnell, Margaret M. (2003)
Proceedings , Paper 892

Discussion Paper
The Tri-State Region’s Recovery from the Pandemic Recession Three Years On
Bram, Jason; Hastings, Jonathan; Deitz, Richard; Abel, Jaison R. (2023-04-13)
The tri-state region’s economy was hit especially hard by the pandemic, but three years on, is close to recovering the jobs that were lost. Indeed, employment initially fell by 20 percent in New York City as the pandemic took hold, a significantly sharper decline than for the nation as a whole, and the rest of the region experienced similar declines, creating a much larger hole than in other parts of the country. Three years later, the recovery has been uneven: Recent job growth has been particularly strong in New York City, where employment remains just slightly below pre-pandemic levels, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230413a

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