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Working Paper
Automated Credit Limit Increases and Consumer Welfare
In the United States, credit card companies frequently use machine learning algorithms to proactively raise credit limits for borrowers. In contrast, an increasing number of countries have begun to prohibit credit limit increases initiated by banks rather than consumers. In this paper, we exploit detailed regulatory micro data to examine the extent to which bank-initiated credit limit increases are directed towards individuals with revolving debt. We then develop a model that captures the costs and benefits of regulating proactive credit limit increases, which we use to quantify their ...
Discussion Paper
More Credit, More Debt: New Evidence on Automated Credit Decisions
Behind the scenes of every credit card lies an increasingly complex algorithmic infrastructure that determines who receives more credit and when, largely outside the inspection or knowledge of credit card users. Credit card issuers deploy sophisticated algorithms that continuously analyze consumer spending and borrowing behaviors, often increasing credit limits without consumers requesting such changes.
Discussion Paper
The Effects of the COVID-19 Shutdown on the Consumer Credit Card Market: Revolvers versus Transactors
The consumer credit card market has experienced dramatic, unprecedented changes in the wake of the COVID-19 shutdown of the U.S. economy. Revolving credit in the G.19 Consumer Credit statistical release fell by an annualized rate of 32 percent in the second quarter of 2020.
Discussion Paper
Why Did Credit Card Balances Decline so Much during the COVID-19 Pandemic?
Consumer credit card balances in the United States experienced unprecedented declines during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the G.19 Consumer Credit statistical release, revolving consumer credit fell more than $120 billion (11 percent) in 2020, the largest decline in both nominal and percentage terms in the history of the series.
Discussion Paper
Delinquency Rates and the "Missing Originations" in the Auto Loan Market
One of the surprising characteristics of the economic downturn induced by the COVID-19 pandemic is that delinquency rates in most consumer credit markets have remained low both during the downturn and the subsequent recovery. The existing literature has emphasized the roles that forbearance policies and various government stimulus programs played in helping households meet their debt obligations (Dettling and Lambie-Hanson, 2021; Bakshi and Rose, 2021).
Discussion Paper
Credit Card Profitability
Credit cards are one of the most ubiquitous consumer financial products in the United States, with more than 75 percent of households owning at least one general purpose credit card in 2019. According to the G.19 Consumer Credit Statistical release, revolving consumer credit, which mainly consists of credit cards and related plans, stood at over one trillion dollars at the end of 2021.
Discussion Paper
Size and Survival of Entrants to Retail Banking
The establishment of new banks and branches is especially important in the banking sector. Many consumers still use physical bank branches to access banking services (Annenberg et al, 2018; Jiang, Yu, and Zhang, 2023).
Discussion Paper
Rising Auto Loan Delinquencies and High Monthly Payments
Delinquency rates on auto loans rose substantially to above pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023, after falling to historical lows during the COVID-19 pandemic. Because auto loans are an important sector in consumer credit, accounting for about 25 percent of nonmortgage consumer credit, a deeper analysis of the increase in delinquencies can give insights into the financial health of borrowers in consumer credit markets and overall household financial well-being.
Conference Paper
Do corporate loans sold to CLOs underperform unsecurities loans
Journal Article
The rise of the originate-to-distribute model and the role of banks in financial intermediation
This is the second article in a series which explores the changing role of banks in the financial intermediation process. It accompanies a Liberty Street Blog series. Both discuss the complexity of the credit intermediation chain associated with securitization and note the growing participation of nonbank entities within it. These series also discuss implications for monitoring and rulemaking going forward. In this article, the authors show that, beginning in the early 1990s, lead banks increasingly used the originate-to-distribute model in their corporate lending business and that the ...