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What Does Everything Besides the Unemployment Rate Tell Us About Labor Market Tightness?
Between March 2022 and June 2023, the unemployment rate, the most commonly used gauge of labor market tightness, remained in a narrow range between 3.4% and 3.7%. Yet, over this period, nominal wage growth increased to unusually high levels and then moderated, though it remains at a historically high rate. The disparity between a relatively constant unemployment rate and large movements in nominal wage growth has led to a divide in public discourse, with some seeing low unemployment and strong wage growth as a sufficient sign of the strength of the labor market and others concerned that the ...
Initial UI Claims and Google Trends in the Post-Pandemic Era
Initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims are a weekly measure from the U.S. Department of Labor of how many new people have filed for unemployment benefits. A well-known leading indicator and one of the few official statistics released at a weekly frequency, initial UI claims are carefully monitored by economists for signs of turning points in economic activity. That said, they are at best an imperfect measure of turning points for several reasons: The information comes out with a lag, it is sensitive to changing seasonal patterns, and it is subject to revision. Given these challenges, ...