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Journal Article
Movements in the term structure of interest rates
Bond prices tend to move together. Stocks tend to go their own way. This distinction requires completely different approaches to managing risks for these securities. For equities the emphasis is on reducing idiosyncratic risk through portfolio diversification. For interest rate-sensitive securities it is on precisely balancing a portfolio to achieve the desired exposure to systematic risk factors. ; Hedging to reduce or eliminate the common factors influencing an interest rate-sensitive portfolio's value requires a model of interest rate behavior. This article reviews and extends previous ...
Working Paper
Empirical tests of two state-variable HJM models
Models for pricing interest rate claims, developed under the Heath-Jarrow-Morton paradigm, differ according to the volatility structure imposed on forward rates. For most general HJM structures the resultant path dependence creates implementation problems. Ritchken and Sankarasubramanian have recently identified necessary and sufficient conditions on the class of volatility structures of forward rates that enable the term structure dynamics to be captured by a finite set of state variables. The class is quite rich. The instantaneous spot rate volatility may be quite general, but the model ...
Journal Article
Market discipline and subordinated debt: a review of some salient issues
Requiring banks to issue subordinated debt is one proposal to bring market discipline to bear in aiding regulatory supervision. This article explores the frictions that produce a need for discipline (agency problems) and the mechanisms markets have evolved for dealing with these frictions. Following an examination of the rationales and assumptions underlying subordinated debt proposals, the article concludes that the case tying regulatory intervention to subordinated debt spreads is not clear-cut, and that use of all available information, including equity returns and debt yields, when ...
Journal Article
Derivatives clearing and settlement: a comparison of central counterparties and alternative structures
Most exchange-traded and some over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives are cleared and settled through clearinghouses that function as central counterparties (CCPs). Most OTC derivatives are settled bilaterally. This article discusses how these alternative mechanisms affect the functioning of derivatives markets and describes some of the advantages and disadvantages of each.
Journal Article
To call or not to call?: optimal call policies for callable U.S. Treasury bonds
Until 1984, the U.S. Treasury typically issued its long-term bonds in callable form. A number of these securities, totaling $93.8 billion in face value, remain outstanding. After a call protection period, usually five years prior to maturity, the Treasury can call the bonds but must give prior notification of intent to call. This article develops a decision rule, which takes account of the prior notification requirement, when it is optimal to call such bonds. ; The decision of whether to call is based on the current level of interest rates and their volatility. For a call to be optimal for ...
Journal Article
A comparison of U.S. corporate and bank insolvency resolution
In the U.S., the insolvency resolution of most corporations is governed by the federal bankruptcy code and is administered by special bankruptcy courts. Most large corporate bankruptcies are resolved under Chapter 11 reorganization proceedings. However, commercial bank insolvencies are governed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Act and are administered by the FDIC. These two resolution processes?corporate bankruptcy and bank receiverships?differ in a number of significant ways, including the type of proceeding (judicial versus administrative); the rights of managers, stockholders, and ...
Working Paper
The pitfalls in inferring risk from financial market data
This paper examines two qualitative rules of thumb, frequently invoked in discussions of bank regulatory policy. The first, that equity holders prefer more risk to less, derives from a result in option pricing theory, that an option's value increases monotonically with the riskiness of the underlying asset. This result is shown to depend on very restrictive assumptions regarding the underlying assets return distribution and the type of option being considered. These restrictive assumptions do not generally obtain in practice. The second rule of thumb is that bondholders' and deposit insurers' ...
Working Paper
The stability of interest rate processes
This paper presents a careful reexamination of Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff, and Sanders (CKLS 1992). By redefining the possible regime shift period in line with evidence from known policy changes and past empirical research, we find evidence that contradicts the major results in their paper. The widely cited conclusion of their paper is that the elasticity of interest rate volatility is 1.5. CKLS also concluded that there was no structural shift in the interest rate process after October 1979. When the structural shift period is defined to be temporary and coincident with the Federal Reserve ...