Search Results

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Author:Berkowitz, Jeremy 

Conference Paper
The effect of personal bankruptcy law on small firms' access to credit

Proceedings , Paper 779

Working Paper
Dynamic equilibrium economies: a framework for comparing models and data

The authors propose a constructive, multivariate framework for assessing agreement between (generally misspecified) dynamic equilibrium models and data, which enables a complete second-order comparison of the dynamic properties of models and data. They use bootstrap algorithms to evaluate the significance of deviations between models and data, and they use goodness-of-fit criteria to produce estimators that optimize economically relevant loss functions. The authors provide a detailed illustrative application to modeling the U.S. cattle cycle.
Working Papers , Paper 97-7

Working Paper
Evaluating the forecasts of risk models

The forecast evaluation literature has traditionally focused on methods for assessing point-forecasts. However, in the context of risk models, interest centers on more than just a single point of the forecast distribution. For example, value-at-risk (VaR) models, which are currently in extremely wide, use form interval forecasts. Many other important financial calculations also involve estimates not summarized by a point-forecast. Although some techniques are currently available for assessing interval and density forecasts, none are suitable for sample sizes typically available. This paper ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-11

Working Paper
Long-horizon exchange rate predictability?

Several authors have recently investigated the predictability of exchange rates by fitting a sequence of long-horizon error-correction regressions. We show that such a procedure gives rise to spurious evidence of predictive power. A simulation study demonstrates that even when using this technique on two independent series, estimates and diagnostic statistics suggest a high degree of predictability of the dependent variable. We apply a simple modification of the long-horizon regression due to Jegadeesh (1991), which may provide more accurate inferences for researchers interested in comparing ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 96-39

Working Paper
A coherent framework for stress-testing

In recent months and years both practitioners and regulators have embraced the ideal of supplementing VaR estimates with "stress-testing". Risk managers are beginning to place an emphasis and expend resources on developing more and better stress-tests. In the present paper, we hold the standard approach to stress-testing up to a critical light. The current practice is to stress-test outside the basic risk model. Such an approach yields two sets of forecasts -- one from the stress-tests and one from the basic model. The stress scenarios, conducted outside the model, are never explicitly ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-29

Working Paper
Generalized spectral estimation

This paper provides a framework for estimating parameters in a wide class of dynamic rational expectations models. The framework recognizes that RE models are often meant to match the data only in limited ways. In particular, interest may focus on a subset of frequencies. This paper designs a frequency domain version of GMM. The estimator has several advantages over traditional GMM. Aside from allowing band-restricted estimation, it does not require making arbitrary instrument or weighting matrix choices. The framework also includes least squares, maximum likelihood, and band restricted ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 96-37

Working Paper
Dynamic equilibrium economies: a framework for comparing models and data

We propose a constructive, multivariate framework for assessing agreement between (generally misspecified) dynamic equilibrium models and data, which enables a complete second-order comparison of the dynamic properties of models and data. We use bootstrap algorithms to evaluate the significance of deviations between models and data, and we use goodness-of-fit criteria to produce estimators that optimize economically relevant loss functions. We provide a detailed illustrative application to modeling the U.S. cattle cycle.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1997-23

Working Paper
On the finite-sample accuracy of nonparametric resampling algorithms for economic time series

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in nonparametric bootstrap inference for economic time series. Nonparametric resampling techniques help protect against overly optimistic inference in time series models of unknown structure. They are particularly useful for evaluating the fit of dynamic economic models in terms of their spectra, impulse responses, and related statistics, because they do not require a correctly specified economic model. Notwithstanding the potential advantages of nonparametric bootstrap methods, their reliability in small samples is questionable. In this ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-04

Working Paper
Bankruptcy exemptions and the market for mortgage loans

The recent explosion in personal bankruptcy filings has motivated research into whether credit markets are being adversely affected by generous legal provisions. Empirically, this question is examined by comparing credit conditions and bankruptcy exemptions across states. We note that the literature has focused on aggregate household credit, making no distinction between secured and unsecured credit. We argue that such aggregation obscures important differences in forms of credit. Most significantly, property exemptions do not prevent the home mortgage lender from foreclosing on the home if ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1998-07

Working Paper
How accurate are Value-at-Risk models at commercial banks?

In recent years, the trading accounts at large commercial banks have grown substantially and become progressively more diverse and complex. We provide descriptive statistics on the trading revenues from such activities and on the associated Value-at-Risk forecasts internally estimated by banks. For a sample of large bank holding companies, we evaluate the performance of banks' trading risk models by examining the statistical accuracy of the VaR forecasts. Although a substantial literature has examined the statistical and economic meaning of Value-at-Risk models, this article is the first to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2001-31

PREVIOUS / NEXT