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Journal Article
District digest: Economic trends across the region
Related Link:> https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/econ_focus/2013/q1/ef_q1_districtchart.jpg
Journal Article
Business Dynamics in the United States and the Fifth District
Working Paper
Using the Kalman filter to smooth the shocks of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model
This paper shows how to use the Kalman filter (Kalman 1960) to back out the shocks of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. In particular, we use the smoothing algorithm as described in Hamilton (1994) to estimate the shocks of a sticky-prices and sticky-wages model using all the information up to the end of the sample.
Journal Article
Understanding Recent Trends in Labor Market Participation
District Digest: Understanding Recent Trends in Labor Market Participation
Briefing
Where are households in the deleveraging cycle?
The ratio of household debt to disposable personal income fell rapidly during the recession of 2007-09 as consumers defaulted on loans, paid down debt, and took out fewer loans. According to some economists, this household debt reduction ? "deleveraging" ? has constrained consumer spending, contributing to a longer, deeper recession and a slower recovery. As households strengthen their balance sheets, their ability to take on new debt to finance consumption is improving, but household debt remains elevated by historical standards, and other determinants of consumer spending remain weak.
Journal Article
District digest: The Federal presence in the Fifth District
Economic trends across the region, pg. 52-55 compiled by Sonya Ravindranath Waddell
Working Paper
Transparency, expectations, and forecasts
In 1994, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began to release statements after each meeting. This paper investigates whether the public?s views about the current path of the economy and of future policy have been affected by changes in the Federal Reserve?s communications policy as reflected in private sector?s forecasts of future economic conditions and policy moves. In particular, has the ability of private agents to predict where the economy is going improved since 1994? If so, on which dimensions has the ability to forecast improved? We find evidence that the individuals? forecasts ...
Journal Article
Post-Recession Labor Market Trends in the Fifth District
Working Paper
Examining contributions to core consumer inflation measures
The purpose of this paper is to examine the composition of inflation over time. The authors calculate the contributions to inflation for individual series of the consumer price index (CPI) and personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) and then aggregate those contributions into major consumer expenditure categories. This technique provides a wealth of information concerning aggregate inflation behavior in a concise way, enabling the authors to describe the composition of inflation at any point in time. A particularly important benefit of this method is that it allows them to ...
Journal Article
Decomposing inflation
As U.S. core inflation measures have declined in recent years, analysts have renewed their efforts to understand inflation dynamics. A common approach to this issue is to make inferences about how price changes of major components affect the aggregate inflation rate. This article takes a more rigorous approach, calculating and plotting the precise contributions of major consumer expenditure categories to core inflation measures over time. ; This technique has distinct advantages. It highlights the underlying trends in inflation, enabling analysts to make more informed inferences about the ...