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Working Paper
Central bank intervention and overnight uncovered interest rate parity
This paper considers the impact of U.S. and German central bank intervention on the risk premium in forward foreign exchange markets.
Working Paper
Post-Louvre intervention: did target zones stabilize the dollar?
An investigation of whether the G-3 nations (Germany, Japan, and the U.S.) successfully maintained target zones following the G-7's February 1987 Louvre meeting. Using daily, official intervention data and simultaneous-equation techniques, the authors determine that the G-3 reacted in a manner consistent with maintaining target zones, but find scant evidence that the intervention successfully influenced subsequent exchange-rate movements.
Working Paper
Intervention as information: a survey
Research has generally failed to find reliable connections between official exchange-market interventions and exchange rates that are consistent with either a monetary or a portfolio-balance theory of exchange-rate determination. Recently economists have suggested that intervention might sometimes influence exchange rates through its effects on agents? expectations. This survey discusses newer research that analyzes informational aspects of intervention.
Working Paper
The risk premium in forward foreign exchange markets and G-3 central bank intervention: evidence of daily effects, 1985-1990
Evidence that forward rates for foreign exchange are not unbiased forecasts of future spot rates suggests a time-varying risk premium. However, there is little evidence that the forecast error is related to fundamentals, although most investigations have lacked high-frequency data. In this paper, we use daily exchange-rate and official Federal Reserve intervention data to test for an impact of intervention on the forecast error. This paper extends recent analyses of daily changes in exchange rates by Baillie and Bollersev (1989) and Hsieh (1989) to the daily forward-rate forecast errors for ...