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Journal Article
Assessing the Recent Rise in Unemployment
The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market transitions account for this rise. One dominant factor appears to be a fall in the job-finding rate—the share of unemployed individuals finding employment. The duration of unemployment has also increased recently. In past decades, these patterns have frequently occurred during the onset of recessions, which suggests that these data should be closely monitored.
Journal Article
Signs of Cyclical Weakness in Part-Time Employment?
Involuntary part-time employment—the share of people who work less than 35 hours per week but want and are available to work full-time—has increased since 2023. While this contrasts with steady declines during previous cyclical expansions, it is consistent with the recent rise in unemployment. Examining worker transitions shows that fewer workers have found full-time work and a growing number have remained stuck in part-time employment. Though levels are only slightly elevated since 2023, this pattern may hint at emerging cyclical weakness in the labor market.