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Journal Article
Gauging the odds of a double-dip recession amid signals and slowdowns
Public sentiment says the recession isn't over. Never mind that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the arbiter of recessions, declared that the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 officially ended in June 2009. An unrelenting pessimism constrains the recovery as consumers spend reluctantly while paying down debt, gripped by persistent fears of unemployment. The economy grew at a 2.5 percent annualized pace in the third quarter, according to the second estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP), a moderate improvement after two quarters of decelerating growth during the recovery. ...
What is keeping core inflation above 2 percent?
How much is current "excess" inflation? We take a new approach to this question, focusing on movements in relative prices.
Journal Article
America’s Missing Workers Are Primarily Middle Educated
The labor force participation rate has fallen since 2008, partly due to an aging population and despite a more highly educated one. After accounting for aging, those whose highest educational attainment is a high school diploma, some college or an associate degree have primarily driven the participation decrease.
Changes in Labor Force Participation Help Explain Recent Job Gains
The U.S. labor force participation rate declined following the Great Recession to a low of 62.3 percent in 2015.
U.S. Economic Rebound Uneven amid Resurgent Local COVID-19 Outbreaks
A full recovery to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity appears unlikely until the virus is under control.
Wage growth still exceeds 3 percent despite slowing in business survey measures
Fed policymakers working to reduce inflation have closely monitored how fast wages have risen. National estimates put recent 12-month wage inflation at around 4–5 percent, though these measures can lag other indicators of labor market conditions. More timely wage data can be found from the five regional Federal Reserve Banks that run business surveys.
Is inflation still slowing? Early 2025 data pivotal to outlook
January inflation data were stronger in 2023 and 2024 than forecasters expected, even after more encouraging results had been reported for the ends of 2022 and 2023. Rather than reflecting seasonal adjustment difficulties, this pattern may be caused by a large share of firms changing prices at the start of a new year.
Rent inflation remains on track to slow over the coming year
Measures of market rents—the rental rate for new leases—increased about 15 percent in 2021. The surge occurred despite a modest increase of less than 4 percent in the rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER) components of the most commonly watched U.S. inflation gauges, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). A forecast of rent inflation using the Single Family Rent Index from CoreLogic, a financial analytics firm, would have accurately predicted this path a year in advance and currently anticipates rent inflation slowing to below 6 percent by the end ...
Consumer Surveys Suggest Economic Conditions Remain Healthy but Growth Is Slowing
The current divergence between two prominent consumer confidence indexes suggests that policymakers need to be mindful of a U.S. economy in transition.
What the Trimmed Mean Says About Future Inflation: Broadening Price Pressures Ahead
As we look ahead to the rest of this year and into 2022, we expect that even as some of the extreme price increases responsible for the recent surge in headline inflation fade, a broader swath of goods and services will show meaningful price increases.