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Journal Article
Secured and Unsecured Debt Over the Business Cycle
Unsecured debt better predicts economic activity than secured debt
Journal Article
Engines of growth vary in four largest cities
Journal Article
Trapped: Few Developing Countries Can Climb the Economic Ladder or Stay There
Despite the theory of global economic convergence, few developing countries have actually been able to catch up to the income levels in the U.S. or other advanced economies. They remain trapped at a relatively low- or middle-income level.
Journal Article
Does More Financial Development Lead to More or Less Volatility?
Since the financial crisis, many have speculated that as a financial sector becomes more developed, volatility can become excessive.
Journal Article
The liquidity trap: an alternative explanation for today's low inflation
In contrast with many people?s expectations, the Fed?s injection of $3.5 trillion into the economy caused no significant inflation or increases in the price level. There are many possible explanations in the mainstream; an alternative is a liquidity trap.
Journal Article
Relative Income Traps
Despite economic growth in the post-World War II period, few developing countries have been able to catch up to the income levels in the United States or other advanced economies. Such countries remain trapped at a relative low- or middle-income level. In this article, the authors redefine the concept of income traps as situations in which income levels relative to the United States remain constantly low and with no clear sign of convergence. This approach allows them to study the issue of economic convergence (or lack of it) directly. The authors describe evidence pointing to the existence ...
Journal Article
Recovery from the Great Recession Has Varied around the World
Since 2009, percentage growth in GDP has been the highest in Asia and Africa and the lowest in Europe, followed by North America. The mediocre performance on the latter two continents could have something to do with their advanced and open financial systems, which might have made it easier for the global financial crisis to spread through them.
Working Paper
Metro Business Cycles
We construct monthly economic activity indices for the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) beginning in 1990. Each index is derived from a dynamic factor model based on twelve underlying variables capturing various aspects of metro area economic activity. To accommodate mixed-frequency data and differences in data-publication lags, we estimate the dynamic factor model using a maximum- likelihood approach that allows for arbitrary patterns of missing data. Our indices highlight important similarities and differences in business cycles across MSAs. While a number of MSAs ...
Journal Article
Does the Pullback in the Bond Market Matter?
Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries might be crucial in keeping a cap on U.S. borrowing costs.
Journal Article
Sovereign Default and Economic Performance in Oil-Producing Economies
Because oil-producing countries do hold public debt and do default, we must understand how oil reserves and production affect risk and economic performance.