Search Results
Journal Article
The Effects of COVID-19 on Unemployment Insurance Claims
The increase in unemployment insurance claims appears to be higher for states with relatively more employees in the service sector.
Journal Article
Unintended Consequences of Coronavirus-Related Unemployment Insurance Tax Laws
Waived employer payroll tax increases for state unemployment insurance appear to have increased layoffs.
Journal Article
Which Earnings Groups Have Been Most Affected by the COVID-19 Crisis?
When the pandemic caused unemployment to skyrocket, the lowest earners were the hardest hit.
Journal Article
The Great Resignation vs. The Great Reallocation: Industry-Level Evidence
Some workers have experienced the Great Resignation, but others have gone through the Great Reallocation— transferring from one job to another.
Journal Article
Hires and Separations During the COVID-19 Crisis by Firm Size
The negative effects of the COVID-19 crisis were larger for firms with under 50 employees, even with loans from the Paycheck Protection Program.
Journal Article
How Recent Recessions Have Affected Dual-Earner Couples
Employment and hours for married couples with both spouses active in the labor market behaved differently during the two most recent recessions.
Working Paper
On the Real-Time Predictive Content of Financial Conditions Indices for Growth
We provide evidence on the real-time predictive content of the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), for conditional quantiles of U.S. real GDP growth. Our work is distinct from the literature in two specific ways. First, we construct (unofficial) real-time vintages of the NFCI. This allows us to conduct out-of-sample analysis without introducing the kind of look-ahead biases that are naturally introduced when using a single current vintage. We then develop methods for conducting asymptotic inference on tests of equal tick loss between nested quantile regression models when the data are ...
Working Paper
On the Real-Time Predictive Content of Financial Conditions Indices for Growth
We provide evidence on the real-time predictive content of the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), for conditional quantiles of U.S. real GDP growth. Our work is distinct from the literature in two specific ways. First, we construct (unofficial) real-time vintages of the NFCI. This allows us to conduct out-of-sample analysis without introducing the kind of look-ahead biases that are naturally introduced when using a single current vintage. We then develop methods for conducting asymptotic inference on tests of equal tick loss between nested quantile regression models when the data are ...
Working Paper
Growth-at-Risk is Investment-at-Risk
We investigate the role financial conditions play in the composition of U.S. growth-at-risk. We document that, by a wide margin, growth-at-risk is investment-at-risk. That is, if financial conditions indicate U.S. real GDP growth will be in the lower tail of its conditional distribution, we know that quantitatively, the main contributor is a decline in investment. Consumption contributes under extreme financial stress. Government spending and net exports do not play a role. We show that leverage plays a key role in determining both consumption- and investment at-risk, which provides support ...
Working Paper
Growth-at-Risk is Investment-at-Risk
We investigate the role financial conditions play in the composition of U.S. growth-at-risk. We document that, by a wide margin, growth-at-risk is investment-at-risk. That is, if financial conditions indicate U.S. real GDP growth will be in the lower tail of its conditional distribution, we know that the main contributor is a decline in investment. Consumption contributes under extreme financial stress. Government spending and net exports do not play a role. We show that leverage plays a key role in determining both consumption- and investment-at-risk, which provides support to the financial ...