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Author:Airaudo, Florencia 

Working Paper
Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation: Implications for Trade, Financial Flows, and Economic Policy

Recent geopolitical tensions have revived interest in understanding the economic consequences of geopolitical fragmentation. Using bilateral trade flows, portfolio investment data, and detailed records of economic policy interventions, we revisit widely-used geopolitical distance metrics, specifically the Ideal Point Distance (IPD) derived from United Nations General Assembly voting. We document substantial variability in measured fragmentation, driven significantly by methodological choices related to sample periods and vote categories, especially in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1408

Discussion Paper
Fragmentation? Revisiting the Ideal Point Distance measure of geopolitical distance

In recent years, there has been growing interest in investigating the extent of geoeconomic fragmentation, defined as a policy-driven reversal of global economic integration. While world trade relative to GDP has remained relatively stable, geoeconomic fragmentation may manifest through the reconfiguration of trading patterns.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2025-03-21-2

Journal Article
Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation: Implications for Trade, Financial Flows, and Economic Policy

Recent geopolitical tensions have revived interest in understanding the economic consequences of geopolitical fragmentation. Using bilateral trade flows, portfolio investment data, and detailed records of economic policy interventions, we revisit widely used geopolitical distance metrics, specifically the ideal point distance (IPD) derived from United Nations General Assembly voting. We document substantial variability in measured fragmentation, driven significantly by methodological choices related to sample periods and vote categories, especially in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of ...
Review , Volume 107 , Issue 12 , Pages 1-30

Working Paper
Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation: Implications for Trade, Financial Flows, and Economic Policy

Recent geopolitical tensions have revived interest in understanding the economic consequences of geopolitical fragmentation. Using bilateral trade flows, portfolio investment data, and detailed records of economic policy interventions, we revisit widely-used geopolitical distance metrics, specifically the Ideal Point Distance (IPD) derived from United Nations General Assembly voting. We document substantial variability in measured fragmentation, driven significantly by methodological choices related to sample periods and vote categories, especially in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-006

Working Paper
Recent Evolutions in the Global Trade System: From Integration to Strategic Realignment

This paper analyzes recent structural transformations in the global economic system, emphasizing the increasing geopolitical fragmentation and strategic realignments driven primarily by technological competition. We focus on China’s rise as a technological competitor. We introduce novel quantitative metrics such as the Export Similarity Index, the Partner Similarity Index, and the Ideal Point Distance to examine global shifts in trade patterns and sectoral competition. Our findings highlight competitive pressures in critical sectors, including machinery and advanced manufacturing, with ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-027

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