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Working Paper
Choices and Implications when Measuring the Local Supply of Prescription Opioids
Mezza, Alvaro; Cho, David; Montes, Joshua (2022-11-22)
Despite the growth in the literature on the opioid crisis, questions remain on how to best measure the local supply of prescription opioids. We document that measures based on the number of prescriptions largely track hydrocodone, while measures based on morphine-equivalent amounts largely track oxycodone. This choice matters, given the well-documented link between oxycodone and the rise in use of illicit opioids such as heroin, plus the fact that oxycodone and hydrocodone (the two most common prescription opioids) are only weakly correlated. We recommend local measures of the supply of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-078

Working Paper
Labor Supply Shocks, Labor Force Entry, and Monetary Policy
Kurozumi, Takushi; Van Zandweghe, Willem (2022-05-24)
Should monetary policy offset the effects of labor supply shocks on inflation and the output gap? Canonical New Keynesian models answer yes. Motivated by weak labor force participation during the pandemic, we reexamine the question by introducing labor force entry and exit in an otherwise canonical model with sticky prices and wages. The entry decision generates an employment channel of monetary policy, and a labor supply shock to the value of nonparticipation in the labor market induces a policy trade-off between stabilization of the employment gap and wage growth. For an adverse labor ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-17

Journal Article
Worker Diversity and Wage Growth Since 1940
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Peake, Makenzie (2020)
Since 1940 the average worker has become older, more educated, more likely to be a woman, less likely to be White, and slightly less likely to be single. How has this evolution of the average worker affected wage growth, that is, the wage of the average worker? We conduct two sets of experiments: First, we decompose wage growth between a “growth effect” and a “distribution effect.” The former measures the effect of a change in the wage function, associating wages with worker types; the latter measures the effect of the changing distribution of worker types. Both effects contribute ...
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-18

Discussion Paper
How Have the Euro Area and U.S. Labor Market Recoveries Differed?
Klitgaard, Thomas (2022-03-30)
The initial phase of the pandemic saw the euro area and U.S unemployment rates behave quite differently, with the rate for the United States rising much more dramatically than the euro area rate. Two years on, the rates for both regions are back near pre-pandemic levels. A key difference, though, is that U.S. employment levels were down by 3.0 million jobs in 2021:Q4 relative to pre-pandemic levels, while the number of euro area jobs was up 600,000. A look at employment by industry shows that both regions had large shortfalls in the accommodation and food services industries, as expected. A ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220330

Working Paper
Population aging, labor demand, and the structure of wages
Patria, Margarita; Papadopoulos, Michael; Triest, Robert K. (2017-05-31)
One consequence of demographic change is substantial shifts in the age distribution of the working-age population. As the baby boom generation ages, the usual historical pattern of a high ratio of younger workers relative to older workers has been replaced by a pattern of roughly equal percentages of workers of different ages. One might expect that the increasing relative supply of older workers would lower the wage premium paid for older, more experienced workers. This paper provides strong empirical support for this hypothesis. Econometric estimates imply that the size of one?s birth cohort ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-1

Working Paper
The supply and demand of skilled workers in cities and the role of industry composition
Brinkman, Jeffrey (2014-10-20)
The share of high-skilled workers in U.S. cities is positively correlated with city size, and this correlation strengthened between 1980 and 2010. Furthermore, during the same time period, the U.S. economy experienced a significant structural transformation with regard to industrial composition, most notably in the decline of manufacturing and the rise of high-skilled service industries. To decompose and investigate these trends, this paper develops and estimates a spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and workers that allows for both industry-specific and skill-specific ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-32

Working Paper
The Impact of the Age Distribution on Unemployment: Evidence from US States
Fallick, Bruce; Foote, Christopher L. (2022-10-01)
Economists have studied the potential effects of shifts in the age distribution on the unemployment rate for more than 50 years. Most of this analysis uses a “shift-share” method, which assumes that the demographic structure has no indirect effects on age-specific unemployment rates. This paper uses state-level data to revisit the influence of the age distribution on unemployment in the United States. We examine demographic effects across the entire age distribution rather than just the youth share of the population—the focus of most previous work—and extend the date range of analysis ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-15

Working Paper
Dissecting the Great Retirement Boom
Birinci, Serdar; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; See, Kurt (2024-07)
Between 2020 and 2023, the fraction of retirees in the working-age population in the U.S. increased above its pre-pandemic trend. Several explanations have been proposed to rationalize this gap, such as the rise in net worth due to higher asset returns, the labor market's deterioration due to higher unemployment risk, the expansion of fiscal support programs, and increased mortality risk. We quantitatively study the interaction of these factors and decompose their relative contribution to the recent rise in retirements using an incomplete markets, overlapping generations model with a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-017

Working Paper
The COVID-19 Pandemic and Family Economic Well-being: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances
Goodman, Sarena; Li, Gina; Moore, Kevin B.; Volz, Alice Henriques (2024-08-23)
The COVID-19 pandemic caused severe disruptions to the U.S. labor market and economic activity. We establish connections between family experiences of the pandemic, their income under normal conditions, and their later economic well-being using the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances. By their interview, one-third of families experienced net employment declines, one-third had teleworked, and one-fifth had significant COVID-19-related health events. These experiences strongly reflected families’ positions in the income distribution, with lower-income families bearing the brunt. They also ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-068

Working Paper
Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Kumar, Anil; Liang, Che-Yuan (2019-05-16)
We exploit the 1998 and 2003 constitutional amendment in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for non-housing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market. Using state-level as well as micro data and the synthetic control approach, we find that easier access to housing credit led to a notably lower labor force participation rate between 1998 and 2007. We show that our findings are remarkably robust to improved synthetic control methods based on insights from machine learning. We explore treatment effect heterogeneity ...
Working Papers , Paper 1810

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