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Working Paper
Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies
Londono, Juan M.; Bayoumi, Tamim; Gagnon, Joseph E.; Saborowski, Christian; Sapriza, Horacio (2017-02)
This paper explores the direct effects and spillovers of unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies. We find that official purchases of foreign assets have a large positive effect on a country's current account that diminishes considerably as capital mobility rises. There is an important additional effect through the lagged stock of official assets. Official purchases of domestic assets, or quantitative easing (QE), appear to have no significant effect on a country's current account when capital mobility is high, but there is a modest positive impact when capital mobility is low. The ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1194

Journal Article
An international perspective on the recent behavior of inflation
De Pace, Pierangelo; Li, Li; Contessi, Silvio (2014)
Several commentators have been concerned about the possibility that the euro area may be experiencing disinflation with the risk of deflation. However, the euro area is not the only economy navigating the risky waters of low inflation. Several other advanced economies have recently experienced below-target inflation as well as some actual deflation. In this article, the authors collect data for nine advanced economies and document several facts about the behavior of inflation during the 2002-14 period. First, they show that the relationship between inflation rates and short-term rates ...
Review , Volume 96 , Issue 3 , Pages 267-294

Working Paper
The International Spillovers of Synchronous Monetary Tightening
Caldara, Dario; Ferrante, Francesco; Iacoviello, Matteo; Prestipino, Andrea; Queraltó, Albert (2023-11-29)
We use historical data and a calibrated model of the world economy to study how a synchronous monetary tightening can amplify cross-border transmission of monetary policy. The empirical analysis shows that historical episodes of synchronous tightening are associated with tighter financial conditions and larger effects on economic activity than asynchronous ones. In the model, a sufficiently large synchronous tightening can disrupt intermediation of credit by global financial intermediaries causing large output losses and an increase in sacrifice ratios, that is, output lost for a given ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1384

Working Paper
The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
Singh, Sanjay R.; Taylor, Alan M.; Jordà, Òscar (2020-01-16)
Is the effect of monetary policy on the productive capacity of the economy long lived? Yes, in fact we find such impacts are significant and last for over a decade based on: (1) merged data from two new international historical databases; (2) identification of exogenous monetary policy using the macroeconomic trilemma; and (3) improved econometric methods. Notably, the capital stock and total factor productivity (TFP) exhibit hysteresis, but labor does not. Money is non-neutral for a much longer period of time than is customarily assumed. A New Keynesian model with endogenous TFP growth can ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-01

Report
Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending
Correa, Ricardo; di Giovanni, Julian; Goldberg, Linda S.; Minoiu, Camelia (2023-11-01)
This paper uses U.S. loan-level credit register data and the 2018–2019 Trade War to test for the effects of international trade uncertainty on domestic credit supply. We exploit cross-sectional heterogeneity in banks’ ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty and find that an increase in trade uncertainty is associated with a contraction in bank lending to all firms irrespective of the uncertainty that the firms face. This baseline result holds for lending at the intensive and extensive margins. We document two channels underlying the estimated credit supply effect: a wait-and-see channel by ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1076

Working Paper
To What Degree and through Which Channel Do Central Banks Other Than the Federal Reserve Cause Spillovers?
Cotton, Christopher D. (2022-09-01)
Spillovers play a crucial role in driving monetary policy around the world. The literature focuses predominantly on spillovers from the Federal Reserve. Less attention has been paid to spillovers from other central banks. I measure the degree to which 20 central banks cause spillovers. I show that central banks in medium- to high-income countries cause spillovers to medium- to long-term interest rates in similar countries through a bond-pricing channel. These effects are narrower than spillovers from the Federal Reserve, which also affect emerging markets, short-term interest rates, and other ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-3

Working Paper
Nonbank Lenders as Global Shock Absorbers: Evidence from US Monetary Policy Spillovers
Meisenzahl, Ralf R.; Peydró, José-Luis; Elliott, David (2023-08)
We show that nonbank lenders act as global shock absorbers from US monetary policy spillovers. We exploit loan-level data from the global syndicated lending market and US monetary policy surprises. When US policy tightens, nonbanks increase dollar credit supply to non-US firms (relative to banks), mitigating the dollar credit reduction. This increase is stronger for riskier firms, proxied by emerging market firms, high-yield firms, or firms in countries with stronger capital inflow restrictions. However, firm-lender matching, zombie lending, fragile-nonbank lending, or periods of low vs ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-29

Working Paper
The Globalisation of Inflation: the Growing Importance of Global Value Chains
Auer, Raphael; Filardo, Andrew J.; Borio, Claudio (2017-01-01)
Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper presents evidence that the expansion of global value chains (GVCs), ie cross-border trade in intermediate goods and services, is an important channel through which global economic slack influences domestic inflation. In particular, we document the extent to which the growth in GVCs explains the established empirical correlation between global economic slack and national inflation rates, both across countries and over time. Accounting for the role of GVCs, we also find that ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 300

Working Paper
Output Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy: The Role of International Trade and Financial Linkages
Bräuning, Falk; Sheremirov, Viacheslav (2019-10-01)
We estimate that U.S. monetary policy has sizable spillover effects on global economic activity. In response to a surprise increase in the federal funds rate of 25 basis points, real output in our sample of 44 countries declines on average by 0.9% after three years. We find that international trade is a more important factor than international finance in explaining these spillovers. In particular, countries with a high share of exports and imports in output have 79% larger responses than countries with a low share, whereas we do not find significant heterogeneity depending on a country’s ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-15

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