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Discussion Paper

Predicting Recession Probabilities Using the Slope of the Yield Curve


Abstract: In this FEDS Note, we examine the predictions of various models and recent surveys of the probability of a recession in the near term.

https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2146

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File(s): File format is text/html https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/predicting-recession-probabilities-using-the-slope-of-the-yield-curve-20180301.htm

Authors

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: FEDS Notes

Publication Date: 2018-03-01

Number: 2018-03-01-3