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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
FEDS Notes
Predicting Recession Probabilities Using the Slope of the Yield Curve
Peter Johansson
Andrew C. Meldrum
Abstract

In this FEDS Note, we examine the predictions of various models and recent surveys of the probability of a recession in the near term.


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Peter Johansson & Andrew C. Meldrum, Predicting Recession Probabilities Using the Slope of the Yield Curve, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), FEDS Notes 2018-03-01, 01 Mar 2018.
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DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.2146
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Fed-in-Print is the central catalog of publications within the Federal Reserve System. It is managed and hosted by the Economic Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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