Journal Article

Using monthly data to predict quarterly output

Abstract: Some time ago, the Commerce Department changed the way it calculates real gross domestic product. In response to that change, this paper presents an update of a simple model that is used to predict the growth rate of current quarter real output based on available monthly data. After searching over a set containing more than 30 different variables, we find that a model that utilized monthly data on consumption and nonfarm payroll employment to predict contemporaneous real GDP does best.

Keywords: Forecasting; Gross domestic product; Employment (Economic theory); Industrial productivity; Economic indicators; Econometric models;

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Part of Series: Economic Review

Publication Date: 1996

Pages: 3-11

Order Number: 3