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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
FRBSF Economic Letter
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009
John G. Fernald
Robert E. Hall
James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson
Abstract

U.S. output has expanded only slowly since the recession trough in 2009, counter to normal expectations of a rapid cyclical recovery. Removing cyclical effects reveals that the deep recession was superimposed on a sharply slowing trend in underlying growth. The slowing trend reflects two factors: slow growth of innovation and declining labor force participation. Both of these powerful adverse forces were in place before the recession and, thus, were not the result of the financial crisis or policy changes since 2009.


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John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, "The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009" , Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FRBSF Economic Letter, number 04, 2018.
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