Journal Article
What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?
Abstract: Estimates suggest the new normal for U.S. GDP growth has dropped to between 1 and 1%, noticeably slower than the typical postwar pace. The slowdown stems mainly from demographics and educational attainment. As baby boomers retire, employment growth shrinks. And educational attainment of the workforce has plateaued, reducing its contribution to productivity growth through labor quality. The GDP growth forecast assumes that, apart from these effects, the modest productivity growth is relatively ?normal??in line with its pace for most of the period since 1973.
Access Documents
File(s):
File format is application/pdf
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/el2016-30.pdf
Description: Full text
Authors
Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Part of Series: FRBSF Economic Letter
Publication Date: 2016
Order Number: 30