Journal Article
Does the yield curve signal recession?
Abstract: Experience has taught economic forecasters to expect a recession when the yield on short-term Treasury securities rises above the yield on longer-term securities?a situation known as a yield-curve inversion. But some economists suspect the yield curve might not be as reliable a predictor of output growth as it used to be.
Keywords: Interest rates; Recessions; Economic forecasting;
Access Documents
File(s):
File format is text/html
https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/publications/economic-commentary/2006/ec-20060415-does-the-yield-curve-signal-recession-pdf.pdf
Description: Full Text
Authors
Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Part of Series: Economic Commentary
Publication Date: 2006
Issue: Apr
Order Number: 2