Discussion Paper
What Businesses Are Saying: Cautiously Optimistic With a Hint of Wariness
Abstract: In the lead-up to the December Federal Open Market Committee cycle, we heard that the economy was chugging along with disproportionate support from high-income consumers and artificial intelligence (AI). Many firms noted they were hesitant to invest or hire too significantly going into 2026; uncertainty and costs remained too high. Consumers pushed back against price increases, squeezing margins. Labor availability was improving, but skill and geographic mismatches continued, and there were no signs that either hiring or firing would pick up soon. You can read more in December's "What Businesses Are Saying." In this post, we draw from more recent conversations, from mid-December to mid-January. While conditions remained largely similar to the prior cycle, we note a few shifts, which we discuss below.
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Description: Discussion Paper
Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Part of Series: Regional Matters
Publication Date: 2026-01-30