Working Paper
On the use of market-based probabilities for policy decisions
Abstract: This paper seeks to delimit conditions so that market-based probabilities provide all the information the policymaker needs to arrive at the best possible decision. Although there are practical considerations regarding how to derive market-based probabilities from financial prices, the author confines the discussion to a theoretical analysis that assumes no impediment to obtaining the market-based probabilities.
Keywords: Policy; Market-based probabilities; policymakers; ;
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Authors
Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Part of Series: Working Papers
Publication Date: 2015-12-14
Number: 15-44
Pages: 11 pages