Survey Measures of Expectations for the Policy Rate

RePEc Short ID: pcr107
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7958-1818

Boyle, Jeremiah P.; Crump, Richard K.; Moench, Emanuel; Raskin, Matthew; Rosa, Carlo; Stowe, Lisa

Discussion Paper

Survey Measures of Expectations for the Policy Rate

Abstract: Market prices provide timely information on policy expectations. But as we emphasized in our previous post, they can deviate from investors? expectations of the most likely path because they embed risk premiums and represent probability-weighted averages over different possible paths. In contrast, surveys explicitly ask respondents for their views on the likely path of economic variables. In this post, we highlight two surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that provide information about expectations that can complement market-based measures.

Keywords: Federal funds rate; Survey of Market Participants; Policy expectations; Survey of Primary Dealers;

JEL Classification: E5;G1;