Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation

RePEc Short ID: pri146
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2482-072X

Rich, Robert W.; Rissmiller, Donald

Journal Article

Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation

Abstract: One of the most surprising features of the long current expansion has been the decline in price inflation through the late 1990s. Some observers interpret the decline as evidence of a permanent change in the relationship between inflation and economic growth. But an analysis based on a standard forecasting model suggests that conventional economic factors_most notably, a decrease in import prices_can account for the low inflation rates in recent years.

Keywords: Inflation (Finance); Imports;