Navigating the Waves of Global Shipping: Drivers and Aggregate Implications

RePEc Short ID: ple692
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0072-0441

Dunn, Jason; Leibovici, Fernando

doi:10.20955/wp.2023.002

Working Paper Revision

Navigating the Waves of Global Shipping: Drivers and Aggregate Implications

Abstract: This paper studies the drivers of global shipping dynamics and their aggregate implications. We document novel evidence on the dynamics of global shipping supply, demand, and costs. Motivated by this evidence, we set up a dynamic model of international trade with a global shipping market where shipping firms and importers endogenously determine shipping supply and costs. We find the model successfully accounts for the dynamics of global shipping observed in the aftermath of COVID-19 as well as at business cycle frequencies. We find that accounting for global shipping is critical for the dynamics of aggregate economic activity.

Keywords: international shipping; international trade; shipping supply; shipping demand; shipping prices;

JEL Classification: F1; F41; L91;

https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2023.002