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The Dual Beveridge Curve


Abstract: The U.S. Beveridge curve's recent outward shift has puzzled economists. We trace this puzzle to a shifting composition of job openings, proposing a dual-vacancy framework that splits vacancies into two types: those targeting the already-employed (poaching vacancies) and those aimed at hiring from unemployment (non-poaching vacancies). Using U.S. labor market data from 1978-2026, our reduced form Bayesian estimation reveals a fundamental disconnect: while poaching vacancies drive most vacancy fluctuations, the hiring of employed workers is almost completely insensitive to them. When we adjust the Beveridge curve to include only non-poaching vacancies, its puzzling behavior disappears, restoring its historical stability. A two-stage matching model with a selection margin provides a structural interpretation of these findings.

JEL Classification: E52; J23; J63; J64;

https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2022.021

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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Part of Series: Working Papers

Publication Date: 2026-09-29

Number: 2022-021

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