Working Paper Revision
What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to US Tariff Changes?
Abstract: We develop a structural framework to identify the sources of cross-state heterogeneity in response to US tariff changes. We quantify the effects of unilaterally increasing US tariffs by 25 percentage points across sectors. Welfare changes range from −0.8 percent in Oregon to 2.1 percent in Montana. States gain more when their sectoral comparative advantage covaries negatively with that of the aggregate US. Consequently, “preferred” changes in tariffs vary systematically across states, indicating the importance of transfers in aligning state preferences over trade policy. Foreign retaliation substantially reduces the gains across states while perpetuating the cross-state variation.
Keywords: interstate trade; gains from trade; customs union;
https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2021.007
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Part of Series: Working Papers
Publication Date: 2023-03-08
Number: 2021-007
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- Working Paper Revision: What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to US Tariff Changes?