Working Paper

A Quantitative Analysis of Tariffs Across U.S. States


Abstract: We develop a quantitative framework to assess the cross-state implications of a U.S. trade policy change: a unilateral increase in the import tariff from 2% to 25% across all goods-producing sectors. Although the U.S. gains overall from the tariff increase, we find the impact differs starkly across locations. Changes in real consumption (welfare) range from as high as 3.8% in Wyoming to –0:3% in Florida, depending mainly on how exposed states are to differentially-impacted sectors. As a result, the "preferred" tariff rate varies greatly across states. Foreign retaliation in trade policy substantially reduces the welfare gains across states, while perpetuating the cross-state variation in those gains. The presence of internal trade frictions amplifies the welfare impacts of changes in trade policy.

Keywords: International trade; Interstate trade; Welfare gains from trade;

JEL Classification: F11; F62;

https://doi.org/10.21033/wp-2021-08

Access Documents

File(s): File format is application/pdf https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/working-papers/2021/wp2021-08-pdf.pdf
Description: full text

Authors

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Part of Series: Working Paper Series

Publication Date: 2021-05-21

Number: WP-2021-08