Working Paper
One Fed, Many Voices: Coordinated Communication vs. Transparent Debate
Abstract: We analyze 481 speeches by FOMC members since 2007, excluding official press conferences. Combining high-frequency financial data with text analysis, we identify monetary policy surprises and measure each speech’s similarity to the Chair’s press conference preceding it. On average, monetary surprises around these speeches have no significant effect on inflation expectations or stock prices. Yet, speeches closely aligned with the Chair’s press conference amplify policy transmission, while less coordinated remarks dilute earlier effects on yields, inflation expectations, and equities. A general equilibrium model with incomplete information rationalizes these findings.
JEL Classification: C55; D83; E52; E58; G14;
https://doi.org/10.21033/wp-2025-23
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Part of Series: Working Paper Series
Publication Date: 2025-11-20
Number: WP 2025-23