Journal Article
An evaluation of real GDP forecasts: 1996-2001
Abstract: During the second half of the 1990s, forecasters made large and persistent underpredictions of GDP growth; subsequently, they missed the drop off into the recession of 2001. Forecasters do not appear to have behaved unusually during this period: Their out-period forecasts were not far from their perceptions of longer-run trends. This suggests that the forecast errors in 1996-2001 likely reflected some unusual behavior in the economy.
Keywords: Gross domestic product;
Access Documents
File(s): File format is application/pdf http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/economic_perspectives/2003/1qeppart1.pdf
Authors
Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Part of Series: Economic Perspectives
Publication Date: 2003
Volume: 27
Issue: Q I