Working Paper
Long-term evidence on the Tobin and Fisher effects: a new approach
Abstract: Using a new approach, we reexamine the empirical evidence on the long-term interactions between inflation and real variables. We find, using over 100 years of U.S. data, that in the long run the effect of inflation on investment and output is positive (a \"Tobin type effect\") and the investment rate, and hence the real interest rate, are not independent of inflation. However, over the full sample at least, the variability of the innovations to the stochastic inflation trend is small relative to the variability of the innovations to the productivity and fiscal trends. We conclude that models generating a reverse-Tobin effect, including standard real-business-cycle and endogenous growth models that incorporate money, may not be the best models for understanding the long-term real effects of inflation.
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
Part of Series: International Finance Discussion Papers
Publication Date: 1996
Number: 566