Working Paper
Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting
Abstract: This paper provides an introduction to predictable forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modelling. The sources of both predictable and unpredictable forecast uncertainty are categorized. Key features of predictable forecast uncertainty are illustrated by several analytical models, including static and dynamic models, and single-equation and multiple-equation models. Empirical models of the U.S. trade account, U.K. inflation, and U.K. real national income help clarify the issues involved.
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
Part of Series: International Finance Discussion Papers
Publication Date: 2000
Number: 695