Working Paper

Do Households Substitute Intertemporally? 10 Structural Shocks That Suggest Not

Abstract: I combine microdata on the intertemporal marginal propensity to consume with 10 structural macro shocks to identify the role of intertemporal substitution in consumption behavior. Although some of the structural shocks that I examine lead to large and persistent changes in real interest rates—which in many models would induce a large intertemporal substitution effect—I find no evidence that households shift the timing of their consumption in response to these interest rate changes. Indeed, changes to the expected path of income explain almost all the aggregate consumption response, leaving no role for intertemporal substitution.

JEL Classification: E21; E32; E52;

https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.021

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: Finance and Economics Discussion Series

Publication Date: 2025-03-25

Number: 2025-021