Working Paper

Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle

Abstract: We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with what is implied by the New Keynesian framework. We then discuss the reasons for which our results relying on a Trend-Cycle VAR differ from the findings of previous studies based on VAR analysis. We explain empirically and theoretically how to reconcile these differences.

Keywords: inflation; real activity; business cycles; trend-cycle VAR;

JEL Classification: E31; E32; C32;

https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2023.038

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: Finance and Economics Discussion Series

Publication Date: 2023-03

Number: 2023-038