Working Paper

Growth at Risk From Climate Change

Abstract: How will climate change affect risks to economic activity? Research on climate impacts has tended to focus on effects on the average level of economic growth. I examine whether climate change may make severe contractions in economic activity more likely using quantile regressions linking growth to temperature. The effects of temperature on downside risks to economic growth are large and robust across specifications. These results suggest the growth at risk from climate change is large—climate change may make economic contractions more likely and severe and thereby significantly impact economic and financial stability and welfare.

Keywords: Climate change; Risk management; GDP at Risk;

JEL Classification: E23; O13; Q54; Q56;

https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2021.054

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: Finance and Economics Discussion Series

Publication Date: 2021-08-09

Number: 2021-054