Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates

Ampudia, Miguel; Heuvel, Skander J. van den

doi:10.17016/FEDS.2019.064

Working Paper

Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates

Abstract: Does banks' exposure to interest rate risk change when interest rates are very low or even negative? Using a high-frequency event study methodology and intraday data, we find that the effect of surprise interest rate cuts announced by the ECB on European bank equity values ? an effect that is normally positive ? has become negative since interest rates in the euro area reached zero and below. Since then, a further unexpected cut of 25 basis points in the short-term policy rate lowered banks' stock prices by about 2% on average, compared to a 1% increase in normal times. In the cross section, this 'reversal' was far more pronounced for banks with a more traditional, deposit-intensive funding mix. We argue that the reversal as well as its cross-sectional pattern can be explained by the zero lower bound on interest rates on retail deposits.

Keywords: Bank profitability; Interest rate risk; Monetary policy; Negative interest rates; ECB;

JEL Classification: G21; E52; E58;

https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.064