New U.S. Business Establishments: Surging or Stalling?

Cao, Dan; Hyatt, Henry; Mukoyama, Toshihiko; Sager, Erick

doi:10.17016/FEDS.2026.040

Working Paper

New U.S. Business Establishments: Surging or Stalling?

Abstract: Since the 1990s, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported much more rapid growth in U.S. private sector employer establishments than has the Census Bureau – the gap reached roughly 1.6 million by 2023. Using linked BLS-Census microdata, we document two main drivers. First, a large and growing number of employers providing services to the elderly and persons with disabilities are in scope for the BLS frame but not the Census Bureau’s. Second, many firms appear with substantially more establishments in the BLS frame. These discrepancies substantially affect the measured establishment size distribution and quantitative policy analysis.

JEL Classification: E24; J21; L11; O31;

https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2026.040