Working Paper

The TIPS Liquidity Premium

Abstract: We introduce an arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields that accounts for liquidity risk in Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). The novel feature of our model is to identify liquidity risk from individual TIPS prices by accounting for the tendency that TIPS, like most fixed-income securities, go into buy-and-hold investors’ portfolios as time passes. We find a sizable and countercyclical TIPS liquidity premium, which helps our model to match TIPS prices. Accounting for liquidity risk also improves the model’s ability to forecast inflation and match surveys of inflation expectations, although these series are not included in the estimation.

JEL Classification: E43; E47; G12; G13;

https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2017-11

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Part of Series: Working Paper Series

Publication Date: 2020-07-09

Number: 2017-11

Note: The first version of this paper was published May 19, 2017.

Related Works

• https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2017/11/