Finding a Soft Landing along the Beveridge Curve

RePEc Short ID: ppe260
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2216-110X

Bok, Brandyn; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Valletta, Robert G.; Yilma, Mary

Journal Article

Finding a Soft Landing along the Beveridge Curve

Abstract: As U.S. economic growth slows this year, a key question is whether job openings can fall from historical highs without a substantial rise in unemployment. Analyzing the current Beveridge curve relationship between unemployment and job openings presents a meaningful possibility that labor market pressures can ease and achieve a “soft landing” with only a limited increase in unemployment. This view is supported by high rates of job matching in the U.S. labor market in 2022, despite ongoing employment reallocation across industries.

Keywords: economic growth; Beveridge curve; unemployment; job openings; job matching process;