Historical Patterns around Financial Crises

Paul, Pascal; Pedtke, Joseph H.

Journal Article

Historical Patterns around Financial Crises

Abstract: Long-run historical data for advanced economies provide evidence to help policymakers understand specific conditions that typically lead up to financial crises. Recent research finds that rapid growth in the top income share and prolonged low labor productivity growth are robust predictors of crises. Moreover, if crises are preceded by these developments, then the subsequent recoveries are slower. This recent empirical evidence suggests that financial crises are not simply random events but are typically preceded by a prolonged buildup of macrofinancial imbalances.

Keywords: financial crises; income inequality; productivity growth; macrofinancial imbalances;