Working Paper Revision
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
Abstract: The U.S. experienced an extraordinary surge in immigration from 2021 to 2024, which triggered widespread discussions about its macroeconomic impact, particularly on inflation. To determine the impact of the immigration surge, we first document the salient features of these new immigrants: they are primarily low-skilled relative to the existing workforce and more likely to be hand-to-mouth consumers. We then incorporate these features into a heterogeneous agent model with capital-skill complementarity. We find that the supply- and demand-side effects of the immigration surge roughly cancel out, causing a negligible response of inflation.
JEL Classification: E21; E22; E31; F22; J11; J15;
https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2407r1
Access Documents
File(s):
File format is application/pdf
https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/documents/research/papers/2024/wp2407r1.pdf
Description: Full text
Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Part of Series: Working Papers
Publication Date: 2025-09-30
Number: 2407
Related Works
- Working Paper Revision (2025-09-30) : You are here.
- Working Paper Original (2024-10-01) : The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications