Journal Article
Predicting real growth using the yield curve
Abstract: A study using out-of-sample regressions to determine how well the 10-year, 3-month yield spread predicts future real GDP growth. The author finds that although the yield curve is a good predictor over the entire 30-year sample period, it has become much less accurate over the last decade.
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https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/economic-review-federal-reserve-bank-cleveland-1328/1996-quarter-1-4162?page=27
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Part of Series: Economic Review
Publication Date: 1996
Issue: Q I
Pages: 26-35