Journal Article
Examining the Beliefs of Professional Forecasters
Abstract: This Economic Commentary studies how professional forecasters update their forecasts in response to macroeconomic news. We find that the two most important news releases for how professionals update their short-term forecasts are the unemployment rate and the three-month Treasury bill rate. News about the unemployment rate is particularly important when updating forecasts about real GDP growth or unemployment, whereas news about the short-term Treasury bill rate tends to be more informative for revisions of inflation and three-month Treasury bill rate forecasts.
https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202624
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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Part of Series: Economic Commentary
Publication Date: 2026-11-02
Volume: 2026
Issue: 24
Pages: 9