Working Paper

Educational Attainment and the Evolution of Cumulative Earnings across 45 US Birth Cohorts

Abstract: Educational attainment profoundly shapes cumulative earnings trends across US birth cohorts. Between the 1933 and 1977 cohorts, men with an advanced degree experienced rising earnings in both the early-career (ages 25 to 44) and late-career (ages 45 to 64) stages, while those with a sub-baccalaureate education―and college graduates outside the 1951–1965 cohorts―saw minimal earnings growth. Women experienced broad-based gains, with larger increases among those with a bachelor’s or advanced degree. For less educated men, extended work life represented the primary growth margin in the late-career stage. While gaps between education groups widened, within-group dispersion rose across cohorts, particularly among men born between 1933 and 1957. These cohort-to-cohort changes emerged at labor market entry and persisted throughout the career cycle, indicating that the conditions in which careers begin critically shape long-run inequality dynamics.

JEL Classification: I24; I26; J24; J31;

https://doi.org/10.29412/res.wp.2026.05

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Part of Series: Working Papers

Publication Date: 2026-03-01

Number: 26-5