The Short and the Long of It: Stock-Flow Matching in the US Housing Market

Fang, Lei; Smith, Eric; Xie, Zoe

doi:10.29338/wp2022-15

Working Paper

The Short and the Long of It: Stock-Flow Matching in the US Housing Market

Abstract: This paper investigates the US housing market from just before the Great Recession onward (2006–19) and assesses the viability of stock-flow matching in generating the observed outcomes. The paper documents that the probability that a house sells declines sharply after listing for two weeks. Moreover, the probability and associated price of a fast sale recover from the housing slump sooner, faster, and more prominently than slower sales. The simulated stock-flow matching model can mimic not only sales, prices, listings, and time-on-market but also capture the distinctions in quick and slower trades, indicating the importance of stock-flow matching for understanding housing market dynamics.

Keywords: housing; stock-flow matching; trading dynamics; duration dependence;

JEL Classification: E30; R21; R31;

https://doi.org/10.29338/wp2022-15

Status: Published in 2022