Industrial Policy and Capital Misallocation in Exporting

Kabir, Poorya; Matray, Adrien; Müller, Karsten; Xu, Chenzi

doi:10.29338/wp2026-12

Working Paper

Industrial Policy and Capital Misallocation in Exporting

Abstract: Trade financing through export credit agencies is a key tool of modern industrial policy. We provide a theory to evaluate its welfare effects, and we study its causal impact on trade, firm investment, and capital misallocation by using the effective shutdown of the US export credit agency from 2015 to 2019 as a natural experiment. First, we show that the US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) has large causal effects: comparing industries exposed and unexposed to the shutdown, we find that exposed industries experience a product-level export reduction of approximately $4.49 for each $1 lost in EXIM financing. EXIM-dependent firms also experience substantial contractions in revenues, investment, and employment. Second, shutting down EXIM increases capital misallocation because firms with high marginal revenue product of capital (MRPK) disproportionately contract while low-MRPK firms are largely unaffected. Terms-of-trade adjustments and freeing capital for domestic producers do not appear to offset these losses empirically. Our results indicate that even in advanced economies with developed financial markets, industrial policy that lowers financing constraints for exporters can raise output, improve capital allocation, and generate welfare gains.

JEL Classification: L52; F13; F14; H81; D24; G28; E22; G32;

https://doi.org/10.29338/wp2026-12